BTC Price Prediction: Will Bitcoin Break $110K Amid Whale Activity and Macro Risks?

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BTC Price Prediction

BTC Technical Analysis: Key Indicators to Watch

According to BTCC financial analyst Robert, BTC is currently trading at $108,831.99, above its 20-day moving average of $106,490.67, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD remains negative but shows signs of convergence, which could signal weakening downward momentum. Bollinger Bands suggest a range between $101,867.66 and $111,113.67, with the price hovering NEAR the upper band, indicating potential resistance at $109,500.

Market Sentiment: Mixed Signals for BTC Amid Macro Uncertainty

Robert notes that while Bitcoin faces resistance at $109,500, positive developments like Metaplanet's $1.7B BTC treasury expansion and whale activity ($8.6B transfer) counterbalance concerns over mainstream adoption. The market sentiment is cautiously optimistic, with headlines emphasizing upward momentum but acknowledging volatility risks from US economic data.

Factors Influencing BTC’s Price

4 US Economic Signals That Could Move Bitcoin This Week

The interplay between US economic indicators and Bitcoin's price dynamics has re-emerged as a critical market narrative in 2025, following a temporary decoupling in 2024. This week's data releases could reignite volatility across crypto markets.

Consumer credit data due Tuesday serves as a bellwether for speculative capital flows. April's $17.87 billion surge contrasts with May's projected $10 billion increase—a figure that WOULD mirror March's $10.85 billion reading. Declining credit availability often correlates with capital rotation into alternative stores of value, particularly when 33% of US consumers face credit marginalization through subprime status and payment defaults.

Wednesday's FOMC minutes release looms as the week's pivotal event, with traders scrutinizing nuance in policymakers' language for clues about monetary policy trajectories. The crypto market's sensitivity to liquidity conditions has intensified since the Fed's balance sheet adjustments earlier this quarter.

Bitcoin Faces Resistance at $109,500 Amid Long-Term Holder Uncertainty

Bitcoin's rally stalls at $109,500 as long-term holders show signs of unease. The age consumed metric—tracking LTH selling activity—spiked to its highest level in over a year, suggesting dwindling patience for new all-time highs. Historically, such sell-offs precede bearish turns, yet BTC's price remains resilient.

Market dynamics reveal contradictions. While LTHs lighten positions, network growth accelerates—new addresses surged earlier this month before a marginal weekend dip. This divergence implies fresh capital may be offsetting veteran exits, creating equilibrium beneath the resistance wall.

Bitcoin Holds Steady Above $100K Amid Questions on Mainstream Adoption

Bitcoin maintains its position above the $100,000 threshold, trading at $108,887.85 with a 0.75% gain in the last 24 hours. Despite this resilience, concerns persist about its broader adoption and institutional integration.

Bill Miller IV, CIO of Miller Value Partners, noted on the Coin Stories podcast that traditional finance remains cautious. "TradFi tends to be not always the first movers on this type of thing, just because it’s a game of risk management," he said. The discussion also highlighted the ironic role of U.S. Treasuries in reinforcing dollar dominance within crypto markets.

Metaplanet Expands Bitcoin Treasury with $1.7B Holdings After Latest Purchase

Metaplanet, a Japanese firm, has aggressively bolstered its Bitcoin reserves, acquiring an additional 2,205 BTC this week. The purchase elevates its total holdings to 15,555 BTC, valued at approximately $1.7 billion. This strategic accumulation reflects the company's commitment to Bitcoin as a core treasury asset since December 2024.

The firm's BTC Yield—a metric tracking bitcoin growth per share—surged 15.1% in just seven days, adding 2,017 BTC worth 31.7 billion yen. Metaplanet's treasury has quadrupled since March, funded through capital markets and operational income. The move underscores institutional confidence in Bitcoin's long-term value proposition.

Dormant Bitcoin Whale Resurfaces with $8.6 Billion Transfer, Sparking Market Speculation

A long-dormant Bitcoin whale has reemerged after 14 years, transferring 80,000 BTC worth approximately $8.6 billion on 05 July. The movement, detected by blockchain analysts Arkham, involved batches of 10,000 BTC each, completed within hours. Market observers initially speculated about potential selling pressure, but on-chain data suggests the activity may have been an address upgrade from legacy "1-" formats to newer "bc1q-" types.

The coins originated from 2011 mining rewards via Coinbase transactions. Despite the sheer scale of the transfer, Bitcoin's price remained resilient, trading firmly above $100K—a testament to robust institutional demand. The methodical nature of the transaction points to technical motives rather than market-driven action, though the event briefly unsettled investor sentiment.

Bitcoin Price Resumes Upward Move — Can It Break New Highs?

Bitcoin has reignited its bullish momentum, climbing above the $108,500 resistance level with eyes set on $110,000. The cryptocurrency now trades comfortably above its 100-hour Simple Moving Average, signaling strong institutional interest. A decisive break past $109,750 could pave the way for fresh all-time highs.

Technical indicators reveal a clear breakout from a bearish trend line at $109,350 on the BTC/USD hourly chart. Market depth from Kraken shows buying pressure accelerating NEAR the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent pullback. Traders are watching the $108,350 support level closely—any sustained position above this threshold suggests continued upward trajectory.

Is BTC a good investment?

Robert highlights the following data-driven insights for BTC investment:

Key considerations: Institutional accumulation (Metaplanet) and whale activity support long-term value, but US economic data could trigger volatility. A break above $109,500 may confirm upward trajectory.

• Technical Strength: BTC holds above key moving averages with Bollinger Bands suggesting consolidation
• On-Chain Signals: Whale movements and corporate treasury purchases indicate institutional confidence
• Macro Risks: US economic data and adoption hurdles may cap short-term gains